Mentari Pagi Edisi 277 Senin,23 Oktober 2017

REVIEW IHSG

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pekan kemarin tercatat menguat 19,02 poin atau 32% di level 5.929,55. Investor asing melakukan penjualan bersih sebesar Rp 626,34 miliar. Namun, dalam sepekan dana asing keluar pasar Rp 10,05 Triliun.

Sentimen global berasal dari ketertarikan Presiden Amerika Serikat Donald Trump kepada John Taylor untuk menggantikan posisi Gubernur The Fed Janet Yellen. Taylor disukai pelaku pasar karena dinilai cukup agresif untuk dapat meningkatkan inflasi dan menaikkan suku bunga.

Di akhir pekan lalu, pasar juga menantikan keputusan Bank Indonesia terkait suku bunga atau 7DRR BI. BI memutuskan untuk mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga di level 4,25%.

Belum ada sentimen dari dalam negeri selain menunggu kinerja keuangan emiten di kuartal III. Pelaku pasar juga akan memperhatikan perbankan yang akan merilis kinerja keuangan hari ini.

Diprediksikan pergerakan IHSG hari ini berpotensi bullish di level support 5.914 dan resistance 5.961

RANGKUMAN BERITA EKONOMI

BI Repo Rate Diprediksi Tertahan hingga Akhir Tahun

Keputusan Bank Indonesia (BI) untuk menahan suku bunga acuan atau BI 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate di angka 4,25% dalam RDG BI pada 18-19 Oktober 2017 diyakini menjadi indikasi ruang penurunan suku bunga makin sempit hingga akhir tahun. Pasalnya Ekonom Indef Bhima Yudistira menilai November hingga Desember secara seasonal atau musiman ada tren kenaikan inflasi.

Opini :

Dari data yang kami peroleh laju inflasi bulanan menurut Bank Indonesia hingga pekan kedua Oktober 2017 sebesar 0,08 persen (month to month/mtm) dan secara tahunan bergerak pada 3,6 persen (year on year/yoy). Dan menurut perkiraan akan menyentuh angka 3,7-3,8 persen (yoy). Hal ini lah yang menjadi dasar BI untuk menahan suku bunga acuan diangka 4,25 persen. Inflasi dan kinerja neraca transaksi berjalan adalah dua indikator stabilitas perekonomian yang menjadi acuan BI dalam menentukan arah kebijakan moneter. Tingkat suku bunga kebijakan saat ini dinilai memadai untuk menjaga laju inflasi sesuai sasaran dan current account defisit  di level yang sehat. Namun  BI tetap harus mewaspadai sejumlah resiko di domestik, antara lain masih berlanjutnya konsolidasi sektor korporasi dan perbankan. Dan dari global yaitu kenaikan Fed Fund Rate di desember 2017

Perbaikan Ekonomi Dunia Akan Meningkatkan Komoditas Indonesia.

Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Indrawati menyatakan saat ini kondisi perekonomian dunia mulai membaik. Perbaikan yang terjadi di dunia tersebut diyakini akan berdampak positif terhadap kondisi ekonomi di Indonesia.

Opini :

Menurut Bank Dunia ekonomi global akan tumbuh sebesar 2,7%. Hal ini dikarenakan kinerja dari manufaktur dan perdagangan yang sudah membaik. perbaikan ekonomi global ini akan berpengaruh terhadap produk-produk komoditas Indonesia yang beberapa waktu belakangan merosot, seperti batubara, sawit, dan minyak, kini mulai naik lagi. Peningkatan terhadap komoditas tersebut akan terjadi baik dari sisi volume maupun dari sisi harga. Namun resiko global juga harus diperhatikan. antara lain kenaikan Fed Fund Rate (FFR) di Desember 2017, dampak normalisasi neraca bank sentral AS yang mulai dilaksanakan pada akhir Oktober 2017, serta transisi kepemimpinan bank sentral AS. Selain itu, terdapat risiko geopolitik yang berasal dari Spanyol dan semenanjung korea.

RINCIAN TRANSAKSI DI BURSA

REKOMENDASI SAHAM 

EXCL pada perdagangan jum’at kemarin ditutup menguat 0.9% di harga 3400. Secara jangka panjang EXCL masih berada dalam fase uptrend. Saat ini EXCL dalam fase koreksi dan pada Jum’at kemarin EXCL memantul pada MA 150 sehingga berpeluang terjadi teknikal rebound bahkan bisa melanjutkan Uptrendnya.

Rekomendasi BUY TP 3600. SL dibawah 3290.

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